Forecast models,"Weather Predictions," XC

Whats up with this for yesterday, this aint right...? According to actual flight information yesterday, it was light West wind and cloudbase was around 4000ft with 8/8 of sky cloud cover. Just another example of how to limit your dependence on forecast models. Even XC skies was entirely off. That's why when people ask, "where are you going today?" the answer, "North, South, East or West, just have to get up first, then make a decision." Obviously, I have some idea in my head of where I would like to go, a direction but I usually leave it open once I'm on my way in that direction. There's a lot of talk of where ultimately pilot X is going to fly too, as opposed to how pilot X is going to get there. That's great to have a goal if you have never left the hill. But, what the conditions are actually like on the ground and in the sky beforehand dictates your approach. Running a task in a Comp to a declared goal with a hundred other pilots is one thing, but flying solo or with a couple of your buddies its better to keep an open mind along the way and not inhibit your path by what the supposed forecasts said that day. Feel it out while you are topping it out, then make a decision. Cross country flying is an art, mixed with some science. All the science and data analysis beforehand will not tell you what you will encounter in the real world or at cloudbase. It gives you very limited information. The best flights are made by just taking it as it goes and by making a decision as you go along, the possibilities are endless. Normally, you have a gut feeling or idea(task) in your head beforehand, so go with that (sorry to you uber-analytical types, but its my blog and I can say what I want!). Next time you see an "epic" looking MM5 or other forecast model that supposedly tells you what to do, view it as an accidental, interesting work of art, that was spit out by a dull, mundane, and lifeless computer that does'nt care if you sink out or go far. Only you do. So, just use it as another smattering of information. That Eagle you saw soaring above that rocky ridge, in the wrong direction that the "forecast" wind said it was supposed to be, or that cloud that was forming above your head, at least that's real. Free your mind and your xc flights will follow.
Bill Belcourt succinctly touches on this and other ideas in an issue of Cross Country Magazine, have to reference it for you later. SM